Tracking Shohei Ohtani Card Sales – Are They Worth Investing In?

It’s Ohtani Madness y’all. The guy has been hot in the card collecting world since last year, with his 2017 Bowman Chrome Mega Mojo Refractor Rookie card fetching big money. After signing with the Los Angeles Angels in the winter 2018 off season, Ohtani was officially slated for card releases in Topps flagship products. With the release of 2018 Topps Heritage at the end of February, Ohtani autographed rookie cards hit the market, and brought big time money. In the first couple weeks of March, Heritage Ohtani autographs were fetching between $400 and $900 regularly, and there was no shortage of them. The Red Ink #/69 autographs were fetching well over $2,000. Raw.

See below for current tracking of Ohtani Heritage Red Ink Real One autographs.

We saw some fluctuation throughout spring training as Shohei continued to work on his game. At one point, his spring performances left so much to be desired that he was beginning to be called a bust. Hadn’t even played a single major league game yet, and the guy was called the next Babe Ruth, and a bust, all within less than a month. Despite this, interest in Ohtani remained high and prices for his cards didn’t drop considerably.

3 weeks into the regular season now, and Ohtani has caught fire. At one point already, he hit home runs in 3 consecutive games. He won is starting pitching debut, then a week later brought a perfect game into the 7th inning in his second career start. OHTANI. IS. HOT. And prices are reflecting this. 4 days ago (at the time of this posting), a RAW Red Ink Heritage autograph (#/69) sold with a Buy It Now price of $10,000. Again, this was raw – as in, not graded.

That’s all we have to go on so far. Some think Ohtani is the next Babe Ruth. Some think he can’t possibly maintain this level of play or popularity. Personally, I think the truth will be somewhere in the middle. Ohtani has proven to me already that he is a legitimate talent. But remember, the book is short on his so far. It’s the Major Leagues, and the opposition will adapt to him. The question will be if he can adapt to it.

I haven’t been lucky enough to get my hands on an Ohtani card yet, but if I did, I would SELL. Sell, sell, sell. Right now. That card wouldn’t make it 24 hours in my hands before I was accepting an offer. I don’t believe his cards will maintain at this value ($10k +). As more releases hit and the market continues to get flooded with Ohtani cards and autographs, we’ll see the overall value decrease as the market produces more to meet the demand. And by the time the “next big thing” rolls around in a year or two, Ohtani won’t be nearly as mega-hot as he is right now.

Even IF he becomes the next big thing, rivaling only his team mate Mike Trout for popularity, it’s going to be easier to get a hold of his stuff. If anything maintains value, it will be the uber-rare Gem-mint 10s and super short printed stuff. To put it in perspective, think back to mega-hits from the past: Bryce Harper refractor rookie autos, Stephen Strasburg, etc. These guys’ cards brought big time money early on, even before they ever played a game. Certainly, some Bryce Harper gems and SSPs will still bring big time cash, but for the slightly more common cards, the market has regulated a bit, and they are much more affordable.

The bigger question will be if ANY of these cards, including the Ohtani cards, will gain significant value in 10, 20, 30 years. This is hard to know. Some think the cards nowadays will maintain value, similar to how vintage cards for the most part maintain value, and some think modern cards are part of a new “junk era” that hasn’t regulated yet. I’m not sure either way. Personally I think it’s somewhere in the middle. It remains to be seen how much long term value any of these cards have, but what are the chances that an Ohtani card that sells for 10 G’s today, will sell for 20…30…100 Gs down the road? I don’t see it happening. Today’s cards have MANUFACTURED rarity. Sure, there are only 69 of the Heritage Red Ink Ohtanis, but already as of today, there are 1,197 results in eBay’s SOLD listings search for Ohtani autographs. That’s a lot of ink floating around.

Shohei Ohtani 2018 Topps Heritage Red Ink Autograph (#/69) SOLD Listings Tracker

(eBay sales only, ordered by
End Date: recent first)

1. 6/02/18 – #26/69 – $3,416.00 (BGS 9/10) $2300 loss!
2. 5/29/18 – #48/69 – $5,425.00 (BGS 9.5/10)
3. 5/02/18 – #60/69 – $5,700.00 (BGS 9.5/10) what happened here?? See next one down…
4. 4/29/18 – #60/69 – $6,400.00 (BGS 9.5/10)
5. 4/29/18 – #08/69 – $7,200.00 (BGS 9.5/10)
6. 4/28/18 – #53/69 – $6,623.00
7. 4/28/18 – #26/69 – $5,700.00 (BGS 9/10)
8. 4/28/18 – #06/69 – $5,655.00 (BGS 9.5/10)
9. 4/26/18 – #60/69 – $9,500.00 (BGS 9.5/10)
10. 4/23/18 – #24/69 – $7,000.00 (BGS 9.5/10)
11. 4/23/18 – #26/69 – $7,100.00
12. 4/22/18 – #13/69 – $7,089.00 (BGS 9.5/10)
13. 4/14/18 – #61/69 – $10,000.00
14. 4/13/18 – #35/69 – $6,500.00 (Best offer accepted – $5,450.00)
15. 4/12/18 – #08/69 – $5,499.95
16. 4/12/18 – #26/69 – $6,199.00 (Best offer accepted – $5,250.00)
17. 4/10/18 – #53/69 – $6,800.00 (Best offer accepted – $6,100.00)
18. 4/10/18 – #42/69 – $6,499.95 (Best offer accepted – $5,500.00)
19. 4/10/18 – #22/69 – $6,300.00 (Best offer accepted – $6,000.00)
20. 4/09/18 – #10/69 – $6,725.00 (BGS 9.5, Auto 10; Probstein)
21. 4/09/18 – #17/69 – $10,249.99 (Jersey number, Best offer accepted – $9,000.00)
22. 4/09/18 – #28/69 – $5,550.00 (Best offer accepted – $4,250.00)
23. 4/09/18 – #46/69 – $4,199.00
24. 4/08/18 – #59/69 – $4,099.00
25. 4/08/18 – #48/69 – $4,800.00 (BGS 9.5, Auto 10)
26. 4/08/18 – #50/69 – $3,500.99
27. 4/08/18 – #01/69 – $6,101.00 (1st in print run)
28. 4/08/18 – #27/69 – $3,150.00
29. 4/08/18 – #66/39 – $3,249.00
30. 4/07/18 – #64/69 – $3,249.99 (BGS 9, Auto 10)
31. 4/07/18 – #30/69 – $5,999.99 (PSA 10)
32. 4/06/18 – #22/69 – $4,100.00 (Best offer accepted – $3,800.00)
33. 4/04/18 – #52/69 – $3,000.00
34. 4/04/18 – #47/69 – $4,999.99 (Best offer accepted – BGS 9.5, Auto 10 – $4,500.00)
35. 3/25/18 – #05/69 – $1,285.00 (BGS 9, Auto 10)
36. 3/25/18 – #26/69 – $1,704.00
37. 3/22/18 – #19/69 – $1,659.99
38. 3/21/18 – #28/69 – $2,449.99 (Best offer accepted – $450.00 yikes!)
39. 3/21/18 – #66/69 – $2,099.00
40. 3/18/18 – #46/69 – $2,036.00
41. 3/18/18 – #66/69 – $2,849.00
42. 3/16/18 – #65/69 – $2,500.00
43. 3/15/18 – #47/69 – $3,265.67 (BGS 9.5, Auto 10)
44. 3/09/18 – #61/69 – $3,250.00
45. 3/06/18 – #52/69 – $3,600.00
46. 3/06/18 – #59/69 – $4,099.00 (Best offer accepted)
47. 3/05/18 – #52/69 – $3,250.00

Currently 41 out of 69 Cards have surfaced:

1. #1 (First card produced)
2. #5 (BGS 9/10)
3. #6 (BGS 9.5/10)
4. #8
5. #10 (BGS 9.5/10)
6. #13 (BGS 9.5/10) – Currently For Sale $19,999.99
7. #17 (Jersey number)
8. #19 Currently for sale $11,999.99
9. #22
10. #24 (BGS 9.5/10)
11. #26
12. #27
13. #28
14. #30
15. #35
16. #38
17. #39
18. #42
19. #46
20. #47 (BGS 9.5/10)
21. #48 (BGS 9.5/10)
22. #50
23. #52
24. #53
25. #59
26. #60 (BGS 9.5/10)
27. #61 (BGS 9.5/10) (Highest sale – RAW, $10K)
28. #64 (BGS 9/10)
29. #65
30. #66
31. #?? (PSA Gem-Mt 10 according to pop report)
32. #?? (BGS 9.5/10 according to pop report)
33. #?? (BGS 9.5/10 according to pop report)
34. #?? (BGS 9/10 according to pop report)
35. #?? (BGS 9/10 according to pop report)
36. #?? (BGS 9/10 according to pop report)
37. #?? (BGS 9/10 according to pop report)
38. #?? (BGS 9/10 according to pop report)
39. #?? (BGS 9/10 according to pop report)
40. #?? (BGS 9/10 according to pop report)
41. #?? (BGS 9/10 according to pop report)

PSA: Currently, there are 2 Shohei Ohtani Heritage Red Ink autographs in the PSA Population Report. Both are Gem-Mt 10.

BGS: Currently, there are 21 listed in the BGS population report. There are 9 graded at 9.5 (7 of these are accounted for above), and 11 graded at 9 (2 of these accounted for above). There are no pristine 10 yet.

Let me know below if you know of any Ohtani Red Ink autos that are not yet accounted for above.